Parameter sensitivity analysis of MSKLOSS river flood routing model
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Abstract:
Sensitivity analysis of model parameters is the basic work of flood forecasting. Based on the platform of Chinese flood forecasting system, we conducted sensitivity analysis of the parameters of MSKLOSS river flood routing model using the local analysis method, so as to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. In order to improve the application efficiency of MSKLOSS river flood routing model, considering the applicability of the model and the convenience of simulation and analysis, we selected three flood locations at the south of Haihe river, which were Huangbizhuang to Beizhongshan of Hutuo River, Yuecheng to Caixiaozhuang of South Canal in August 1996, and Dongcicun to Xingaifang of Daqing River in July 2012, where the underlying surface of the river is close to the present condition. Results showed that the number of river segments, initial infiltration rate, infiltration curve index, and wetted perimeter are highly sensitive. Steady infiltration rate is more sensitive when the flood magnitude is small. Attention should be paid to the initial range setting during parameter optimization and real-time operational forecast.
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