Impacts of changing environment on runoff consistency in the lower reaches of the Chao River
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Abstract:
Hydrological analysis requires the time-series consistency of runoff data, but the changing environment destroys the stability of runoff series. Under the influence of climate change and frequent human activities (water conservancy project construction, vegetation cover change and urbanization construction), the underlying surface conditions and physical mechanism of runoff yield changed obviously, resulting in runoff series variation which can not meet the requirements of consistency of hydrological time series and the same distribution. This paper identifies the trend components, the mutation components, the cyclical components and the random components of the annual and monthly runoff sequences and the rainfall date sequence recorded at the Xiahui Station in the lower reaches of the Chao River during 1976-2012 by using non-parametric Mann-Kendall rank test, Pettitt test and variance analysis respectively. By comparing these components between runoff sequences and rainfall date sequence, this paper concludes that the factor of rainfall is not the only one that leads to runoff changes, but the conjoint effect of climate change and human activities on the evolution process of the lower reaches of Chao River basin.
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