Evaluating the water ecological carrying capacity of Chengdu City with SD model
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Abstract:
In order to enhance the water ecological carrying capacity of Chengdu city whilst promoting the development of economy and improving the living standards of the people, System Dynamics (SD) method was applied to build a coupled system of water ecology – economy – population – water resources – water environment of the city based on the status quo of water ecology. Four scenario patterns including status-continuing, water-saving, pollution-controlling, and integrated-coordination were simulated by the SD model. Simulation results showed that: in the analog period (2014 to 2020), the status-continuing and pollution-controlling scenario patterns can not effectively reduce the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity, resulting in further deterioration of water ecological problems. However, the water-saving and integrated-coordination scenario patterns can reduce the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity. It should be noted that the water-saving scenario pattern can not significantly reduce the coefficient. The integrated-coordination pattern combining water-saving and pollution-controlling measures can reduce the coefficient more effectively. It is the best pattern to improve the water ecological carrying capacity. With the aforementioned recommended pattern, the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity can be reduced to 0.297 for Chengdu City by 2020, down by 59.4% compared with that of 2010. The research results can provide technical basis for water ecological protection in Chengdu city.
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