Precipitation characteristic analysis and precipitation forecast in Baoji region
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Abstract:
Based on the measured data of precipitation in Baoji meteorological station from 1961 to 2015, the variation characteristics of precipitation and precipitation forecast were analyzed by using the linear fitting, the ratio coefficient difference curve, the cloud model, and the moving average Markov model. Results showed that the rates of change of the annual precipitation, the precipitation in wet period and the precipitation in dry period were -11.9mm/10a, 2.6mm/10a and -14.5mm/10a, respectively. And the precipitation in dry period decreased significantly. The intra-annual precipitation and inter annual precipitation were very uneven. The degree of uneven distribution of precipitation was a whole year>rainy period>dry period, and the stability of the precipitation inhomogeneity is rainy period>a whole year>dry period. Based on the sum of the forecast value of precipitation in wet and dry season, the error was smaller than the annual scale of precipitation forecast, and the annual precipitation forecast values of 2016-2020 were 613.1mm, 727.0mm, 632.0mm, 457.2mm and 876.7mm, respectively.Research results provided scientific basis for prevention of drought and flood disasters in the region.
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