Application of GM(0, N) model to prediction of wetland area: A case study on Momoge wetland
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Abstract:
The prediction of wetland area in the coming years is critical for studying the change trends of the wetland habitat and preserving the wetlands. We developed a grey GM(0, N) model as a simple and convenient method to predict the water surface area of wetlands. First, we used the grey relational analysis model to quantitatively determine the main correlative factors that greatly influenced the wetland area. They were: annual rainfall of Momoge wetland, runoff volume of Nen River, and runoff volume of Taoer River. These three factors were used to establish the GM(0, N) model to predict the area of Momoge wetland. To improve the prediction precision, we modified the GM(0, N) model. Then we conducted the residual test and posterior variance test to evaluate the reliability of the model. The average relative error of the modified GM(0, N) model was 9.1%, and the posterior variance test grade was Grade 1, while the average relative error of the multiple linear regressive model was 15.5%. This suggests that the modified GM(0, N) model has an advantage in a practical application.
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