The analysis of encounter probability of drought between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China
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Abstract:
Based on the Copula theory, this study has constructed the joint distribution of SPEI between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China ( SNWTP) at three time scales, i.e.the flooding season, the dryseason, and the whole year. Using the future climate model data, we computed the encounter probability of drought between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area. The results showed that both the water source area and the water receiving area were undergoing a slight drying trend over the past few decades. Compared with the baseline, the probability of concurrent drought events will increase by different degrees in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Especially, the probability of concurrent drought during the flooding season and the probability of concurrent heavy drought during the dryseason increased obviously by 2. 99% ~ 6. 1% and 2. 67% ~ 3. 63% , respectively. The increase in the probability of concurrent drought between the water source area and water receiving area will probably influence the operation of SNWTP. Therefore, it's necessary to take some adaptive measures to ensure the safety and efficiency of SNWTP.
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