Assessment of water resources carrying capacity based on improved catastrophe progression method: a case study in the lower reaches of Yangtze River
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Abstract:
With the increasing shortage of water resources, the research on water resources carrying capacity has become an important topic in the study of regional sustainable development. In order to reduce the influence of subjective sorting of indexes and to solve the problem of high scoring in results, we proposed an improved catastrophe progression method for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, and applied it to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River area from 2005-2015. An evaluation index system consisting of seventeen indexes in four aspects ( water supply and demand, ecological, economic, social) has been constructed to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang , and Shanghai. The results showed that the improved catastrophe progression met hod could be used to sort the indexes objectively , and the evaluation results were accurate and clearly graded. In terms of time, the water carrying capacity of the five provinces was all on the upward trend, but it decreased significantly in certain years, which coincided with the drought years. In terms of space, the integrated rankings of water resources carrying capacity in 2005-2015 were Zhejiang province> Jiangxi province> Anhui province≈ Jiangsu province> Shanghai. In terms of the element layer, the water supply and demand element fluctuated greatly, the ecological and economic elements were growing steadily , and the social element seldom changed and had the lowest score. So we suggest to enhance the utilization efficiency of water resources, and to strengthen water conservancy construction to improve the capability of disaster response.
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