Analysis of agricultural water footprint cycle and trend change in Shandong Province

The agr icultural w ater utilization situatio n and the analysis o f it s cycle and trend is o f g reat practical sig nificance for the r ational allocatio n o f ag r icultural w ater and the impro vement of wat er resource utilization efficiency. Based on the w ater foot pr int theor y, in this paper we calculated the total ag r icultural w ater foo tpr int and its components in Shando ng Pr ovince from 1978 t o 2014. Empir ical mode decompo sition ( EMD) w as used to analy ze the fluctuatio n cycle of each wat er footpr int v alue.We analyzed the influencing factor s of t otal ag ricultura l w ater foo tpr int fluctuatio n on mult iple t ime scales. Furthermore, adopting the log arit hmic av erag e Dewar decomposit ion method ( LMDI) , w e analyzed the main contributor s to the g rowt h of to tal w ater foot pr int. T he r esults show ed that the water footpr int o f forestr y, animal husbandr y, and f isher y fluctuated ov er a per iod of 31 5 years, the water foot pr int of planting industr y fluctuated ov er a per iod of 5 year s, and the to tal w ater foo tpr int fluctuated over a per iod of 8 years. T he three2y ear f luctuation perio d of total ag r icultural w ater foot pr int v alue w as mainly affected by planting in2 dustr y. The eig ht2y ear fluctuatio n per iod was ma inly affect ed by animal husbandry befor e 2002, and by plant ing industry after 2002. The total ag ricultur al w ater foo tprint and its compo nents show ed an increasing tr end over the years. The chang es o f blue, gr een, and gr ay w ater fo otprints all play ed a posit ive r ole in the gr ow th o f to tal w ater fo otprint. Ov er the y ears, the main fact or influencing the gr ow th o f total ag ricultural w ater foo tprint sw it ched fr om the g reen w ater fo otprint to the blue w ater foo tpr int.

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