Study on multi-point joint correction method for real-time flood forecasting errors of river systems
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Abstract:
Real-time correction is an im po rtant w ay to improv e the accur acy o f r eal2time flood fo recasting. T her e are hig h2level hy dr aulic connect ions among the multiple st ations in a river sy st em, and the err ors betw een the mult iple stat ions ar e spat ially in2 ter connected as w ell. Based on the basic equatio ns of riv er floo d routing and the dynamic adaptive aut oreg ressive method, t his study pro posed a mult i2point jo int co rr ect ion metho d fo r real2time flo od fo recasting erro rs wit h consideratio n to the spat ial evo2 lut ion of erro rs. T he correctio n effect was evaluated in terms o f the flood vo lume erro r during flood peak period, f loo d peak dis2 charg e err or, Nash2Sutclif fe efficiency co efficient, and lag t ime of peak. This paper conducted a case study o n t he reg ion up the Wangjiaba section o f H ua ihe Riv er to demonstr ate the pro po sed met ho do log y . The results indicated that the effect of multi2point joint co rr ection was better than that of single2po int correctio n, and the ef fect w as even mo re prominent fo r the floo d peak peri2 o d. The pr oposed method can effectiv ely impro ve the accuracy o f flo od for ecasting of the river sy st em.
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