Analysis on evolution of droughts and floods in Beijing over the last 546 years based on Markov chain
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Abstract:
Based on the data of dro ug hts and flo ods o ver the last 546 y ea rs in Beijing, we o btained different trends o f flo ods and dr oughts using Mann2Kendall test and mo ving t2test, and w e used Mar ko v chain to study the t ransfer pr obabilit y and recurrence of different states in each tr end. T he st udy show ed that the dro ug ht and flo od disasters in Beijing manifested o bv ious tenden2 cies. The over all trend was " f loo d2dro ug ht2flo od2dr ought " fluctuatio n, w ith rapid shifts betw een dro ug ht and floo d at some times. During 147021579, Beijing was pr one to f loo d and had the highest pro bability of t ransferring to a part ial floo d year ( 311 3% ) . During 158021768, Beijing w as pro ne to dr ought and had the highest probability o f transferring to a no rmal year ( 341 3% ) ; it w as also v ery likely to hav e co ntinuous dr oughts. During 176921898, Beijing w as pr one to floo d and had the hig hest pr obability o f t ransferring a normal year ( 411 5% ) ; t he occurrence pro babilities of droug ht and flo od disasters wer e basically the same. During 189921961, Beijing t ransf erred fr om flo od to droug ht and had the highest pr obability of transferring to a partial dr ought y ear ( 351 1% ) . During 196222015, Beijing w as pro ne to droug ht , and had the hig hest probability of tr ansferring to a partial dr ought y ea r ( 291 7% ) ; it w as also v ery likely to have continuo us dr oughts. The ov erall ana lysis of 546 years o f dro ug hts # 2 and flo ods show ed that the tr ansfer o f dr oughts and floo ds tended to be no rmal, but the o verall situation was partial dro ug ht.
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