Research on annual runoff forecast of Danjiangkou Reservoir based on PCA-PSO-SVR

In the annual runoff fo recast, the auto correlat ion betw een meteo ro log ical facto rs w ill have an impact o n fo recast accu2 r acy. In o rder to so lv e this problem, w e added PCA and PSO to the SVR model and established a PCA2PSO2SVR model. We re2 mo ved the r edundant informat ion and no ise, ext racted the main features of the facto rs, and used the o ptimal parameter combina2 tion of the model as input to t he reg ression support v ecto r machine ( SVR) model. T aking Danjiangko u Reserv oir, the w ater so ur ce of the Middle Route of the South2to2No rth Water Div ersion Project , as the study area, we carried o ut model t ests using the data from 1981 to 2016 in Danjiang ko u. T he results show ed that t he qualificat ion r ate during the model v erificat ion period was 831 33% and the consistency rat e also r eached 831 33% , indicating hig h accuracy and stability. The model has certain r efer2 ence v alue for the annua l runoff fo recast of Danjiang ko u Reser vo ir.

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