Risk assessment of flood resources utilization in water transfer project based on combined weight and cloud model
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Abstract:
The ut ilizat ion of flood r eso ur ces w ill pro duce benefits, but it w ill also bring risks. Ther efo re, it is necessary to study the risk assessment of flo od utilization so as to minimize the neg ativ e effects o f f loo d resour ces ut ilizat ion. We identified the risk facto rs of floo d r eso ur ces utilizatio n in a w ater div ersion pro ject, and co nstr ucted an index sy st em fo r risk assessment based o n three aspects: w ater stor age pro jects, w ater conveyance pr ojects, and water pumping pro jects. The subjective weight was calcu2 lated by the analytic hier archy pr ocess, and the objective w eig ht w as calculated by t he ent ropy w eight method and the pr ojectio n pursuit method. T he cloud model was ado pted to calculat e the membership degr ee of the risk index . Then, the risk gr ade of flo od resources utilization can be obtained. The abo ve metho d was applied to the Jiangsu Prov ince segment of t he East Route of the So ut h2to2Nort h Water T ransfer Pr oject. The risks of floo d resour ces utilizatio n in w et, norma l, and dr y years wer e evaluat ed, and the validity and applicability of the evaluation metho d w ere v erified.
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