Change and suitable scale of oasis under water-saving condition in Manas River Basin

The lar ge2scale promotion of w ater2saving irrig atio n technolo gy in arid ar eas has effect ively promoted the oasisizatio n pr ocess and expanded the scale of oasis. Reg arding the appr opriate scale of o asis on watershed sca le under w ater2sav ing condi2 tion, we conducted a case study on the Manas Riv er Basin, w here t he drip irrigat ion t echnolog y o riginates. We used the fiv e2 peri2 o d satellite r emote sensing imag es fr om 1976 to 2015 to analyze t he chang e pr ocess o f oasis area under w ater2saving condition. Based o n the theo ry o f water2heat balance, w e co nstr ucted a calculation model for the suitable sca le of oasis, and determ ined the suitable development scale o f t he basin o asis under w ater2sav ing condition. T he r esults show ed that: From 1976 to 2015, the to2 tal ar ea o f the o asis in the M anas Riv er Basin ex panded by 3881 3 km2; the ar ea o f the art ificial oasis ex panded by 3 8731 3 km2 ; and the area of the natural oasis diminished by 3 485. 0 km2. Calculatio n sugg ested that the suitable scale of the oasis in the Ma2 nas Riv er Basin is 4 0251 924 4991 8 km2. The actual sca le of the oasis ex ceeds the appro priate scale of the o asis by 31 4 times. The oasis stabilit y index H 0 is 01 46, indicating the oasis is in a metastable state. In o rder to ensure the stability o f the oasis, the suitable cultivated area of the Manas River Basin should be 1 8011 622 0131 7 km2 . The r esear ch results sug gested that unreasonable development o f oasis can thr eat en the safety and stability o f the oasis. Determining t he suitable scale of oasis can pro vide a basic scientific basis for the stability and sustainable develo pment of o asis.

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