Early warning method of glacial lake outburst floods based on temperature and rainfall

Glacial lake o ut burst floods ( GLOFs) ar e serious disasters in glacial ar eas. At pr esent, due to global w arming , g laciers are generally diminishing; thus increasing the glacial lake area and the o ut burst risk. Therefo re, the r esear ch on early w arning met ho ds for GLOFs is impo rtant to disast er preventio n and r elief in glacial ar eas. This pa per pro po ses an early war ning method using the temperatur e and rainfall as indices. We selected t he daily g row th rat e o f prio r period po sitiv e cumulat ive temperatur e and the prior thirty2day cumulat ive rainfall as the r epr esentativ e indices of temperature and r ainfall. Based o n the statistics of the 21 o utburst ev ents befo re 2010 and the data fr om the 21 nearby meteor olog ical statio ns, w e built an o utburst early w arning thresho ld and a flow chart o f t he GLOF early w ar ning sy stem. The sy st em w as verified by the GLOF event in the Ranzeaco gla2 cial lake on 2013207205.

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