The attribution analysis of streamflow changes in the Zoige basin based on the Budyko hypothesis
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Abstract:
The hydro logic cycle r esearch under changing env ironment is o ne of the hot topics in water science study. The study on the re2 sponse mechanism to hydrological process chang es is of great practical significance to futur e water r esources planning and management. In this study, based on the Budyko hypo thesis, we conducted attribution analysis of the streamflow chang es in the Zoige basin by sensi2 tivity analysis, and the results showed that: the sensitiv ity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and catchment characteristic parameter were 01 654 1, - 01 234 7, and - 1821 205 0, respectively, which means that every 1 mm increase in precipitatio n would induce a 01 654 1 mm increase in str eamflow; every 1 mm increase in potential ev apotranspiration would induce a 01 234 7 mm decrease in streamflow ; every increase of 1 in the catchment characteristic parameter would induce a 1821 205 0 mm de2 crease in streamflow . The streamflow of the Zoige basin showed a sig nificantly decreasing tr end. Compared with the reference period ( 196021990) , the streamflow o f the chang e perio d ( 199122011) decreased by 561 23 mm ( 201 48% ) . The main influence factor w as the change of underlying surface characteristics, whose contribution rate reached 931 46%. The climate chang e only contributed 51 . 57% .
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