Trend of precipitation variation in flood season in Xiaoqing River basin

We to ok the Xiaoqing Riv er basin as the study area. Based o n the daily pr ecipitation data from 1977 to 2014 at fiv e rainfall stations, w e used the Mann2Kendall t rend test to analy ze the variatio n tr end o f flood2seaso n precipitation at each st ation; then we used M orlet wav elet to analyze the perio dical variatio n of flo od2seaso n precipitation. We detected the abr upt chang e po ints o f the precipit ation series using various metho ds, including the Mann2Kendall metho d, sliding t test, sequential clust ering analysis, and Yamamo to method. Finally, we used the H urst exponent method to pr edict the future trend of the flood2seaso n pr ecipitatio n at each statio n. T he results show ed that the flo od2seaso n precipitatio n tended to incr ease, but the abr upt chang e po ints w ere insig nificant. T he period of the flo od2season pr ecipitation was about 22 years. T he abr upt change analysis show ed that the abrupt chang e points of the f loo d2season pr ecipitation detected by different metho ds w ere no t consistent, and the futur e variatio n o f the estimated flo od2seaso n precipitat ion showed a weak upw ard tr end.

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