Research on drought in Minjiang River Basin based on the theory of runs and Copula function
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Abstract:
In or der t o assess the risk of r egional droug ht disaster r easo nably, w e too k the monthly precipitatio n data of 14 mete2 o ro log ical stat ions in Minjiang Riv er Basin fr om 1961 to 2012 as the r esear ch o bject, and, with thr esho ld as a variable, set thr ee cutting lev els acco rding to the t heo ry o f runs to identify dro ug ht events. Then w e used the best fit Co pula function t o co nstr uct the joint distribution of droug ht durat ion and severity and analy zed the pr obabilistic char acteristics and r et ur n perio d. The re2 sults show ed that Gumbel Co pula funct ion demonstrated the best fitness for M injiang River Basin. Aft er the analy sis of the spa2 tial distribution of conditional pr obability P( S [ 60 mm| D \3 mo nths) , t he results indicat ed that the pro babilit y of occurrence on t he three cut ting lev els increased from the southeast to the northwest of the basin. T he r esults o f joint r et ur n period demon2 str ated that the dr ought in the no rtheaster n and southern parts o f the basin w as mo re serious than that in the central and w estern re2 g ions, while the results of co2occurrence retur n period showed that the drought in the west of the basin was more serio us than that in the east. The spatial dist ribution cha racterist ics o f joint r eturn period wer e mo re stable than tho se o f co2occurrence r eturn peri2 o d. The jo int return perio ds of the w ho le basin on each cut ting level wer e r elativ ely clo se. This study could pr ovide a basis for sett ing the cutting lev el o f the theor y o f runs, cho osing o pt imal Co pula funct ion, and co nduct ing multivariate dr ought analy sis.
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