Groundwater responses to climate change in a typical irrigation district of North China Plain
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Abstract:
The MODFLOW model was used to simulate groundwater flow in a typical irrigation area,Peoples' Victory Canal Irrigation District,in North China Plain,based on the hydrogeological conditions of the study area.The model parameters were well calibrated and model verification results showed that the simulation results could reasonably reflect the groundwater dynamics in the study area from 2012 to 2013.Under agricultural groundwater exploitation and climate conditions during 2012-2013 period,groundwater balance was in a negative equilibrium state.The spatial distribution of groundwater flow in 2030 under the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 scenario NorESM1 M model) was further predicted.The results showed that the groundwater level would continue to decline from 2013 to 2030,and the low groundwater level funnel area was gradually expanding.The spatial distribution of groundwater flow in 2030 was further expllored under different groundwater exploitation scenarios,i.e.,the exploitation quantity increased and decreased by 20%,respectively.According to the forecast results,a 20% reduction in groundwater exploitation was projected to ensure that the groundwater level could be raised and the funnel area could be reduced.However,an increase in exploitation would lead to an obvious increase in the groundwater funnel area.
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