Hydrological forecasting error corrections based on hydrological similarity

How to further improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,reduce forecasting errors,better serve flood control and rescue and water resources dispatching is a hot topic in hydrology.A forecasting error correction model is constructed in this study to improve the forecasting accuracy,based on the similarity theory that the same main influencing factors of hydrological forecasting in similar watersheds result in the similarity of forecasting errors.Different forecasting periods were taken as a starting point in similar watersheds.The error correction factors were based on the quadratic orthogonal regression design.The coefficient of determination increased from 0-933 to 0-998 for the Nujiang Daojieba hydrological station application.The average absolute error of the flood peak flow decreased from 693 m3/s to 116 m3/s,and the average relative error of the flood peak flow decreased from 16% to 3%.The flood peak time of forecasting error reduced from an average of 5-4 hours to 0-9 hours,and the accuracy of the scheme was upgraded from Grade B to Grade A.The hydrological similar flood forecasting correction method proposed in this paper has the advantages of simple structure,easy calculation and significant correction effects,to imrpove the accuracy of flood forecasting. It is also applicable to the case where the water area ratios of different forecasting sections are not much different in similar watersheds,and the flooding process is not much different.

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