Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Haihe River Basin with SWAT model
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Abstract:
In recent years,under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the Haihe River Basin showed a serious decreasing trend.In order to clarify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in different types of watersheds,Two typical catchments was selected in this study:one was the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River,which was significantly affected by human activities in the Haihe River Basin;the other was the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,which was not significantly affected by human activities.Based on the observed runoff data of nearly 60 years,the applicability of the SWAT model in the typical watersheds of Haihe River was verified.The runoff variation attribution was investigated,and the characteristics of runoff variation and the contribution rate of two influencing factors in two different types of watersheds were analyzed.The differences of runoff variation in the two basins under different driving factors were investigated and compared.The results showed that the runoff in both basins had declined in the past 60 years.The upper reach of the Zhanghe River was dominated by human activities with a contribution rate of 65%.The upper reach of the Luanhe River was dominated by climate change with a contribution rate of 89%.Compared with the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,the runoff in the upper reach of the Zhanghe,which was significantly affected by human activities,was more scattered and its trend was more significant,as well as a more departure in the normal and the dry year.
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