Runoff responses to climate change and human activities in the upper Daqing River Basin

The establishment of Xiong′an New Area in Hebei Province has attracted wide attentions from the whole scientific community.The Daqing River Basin,where the New Area is located,becomes a new focus for hydrological scientists.Particularly,the changing characteristics and causes of its water resources were of great importance to understanding the water resources situation of Xiong′an New Area.The relative influences of human activities and climate change on the runoff processes in the upper reaches of Daqing River Basin have been investigated with SWAT model.Elasticity method was also applied to compare the simulation results about the relative contributions of human activities and climate change to the runoff variations.Results showed that the runoff showed a generally decreasing trend from 1981 to 2015,with magnitudes of -0.10 m3/(s·a） and -0.07 m3/(s·a） at Daomaguan and Zijingguan stations,respectively.Human activities served as the leading factor,which contributed to 53.4% to 60.8% of the runoff variation,while climate change and variability contributed 39.2% to 46.6%.The research results are useful to understand the hydrological fluctuations in the upper reaches of the Daqing River,and can also be used as a reference for the future [JP]planning and management of regional water resources for the construction of Xiong′an New Area.

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