Research on water resources carrying capacity based on ecological footprint——A case study of Beijing
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Abstract:
To analyze and evaluate the sustainable development status of regional water resources,this paper used framework of water resources ecological footprint system as foundation.This study introduced the breadth and depth of water resources footprint to distinguish water resources flow capital and stock capital,combined the actual situation of Beijing to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of water resources,and discussed the fitting prediction effect of the improved combination model of ARIMA and GRNN in water resources ecological footprint.Results showed that under the unsafe state of Beijing′s longterm water deficit,the depth of water resources in the study period is greater than 1,and the average water ecological footprint was 0.169 hm2/cap,which is about twice the average ecological carrying capacity of water resources.The three indicators,i.e.,water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value added by industry,ten thousand yuan,and ten thousand yuan GDP water added value of agricultural water use were important factors which influenced the ecological footprint of water resources of Beijing.The effect of ARIMA (3,2,and 1) and GRNN coupling model on the fitting and prediction of the ecological footprint of water resources in Beijing was better than that of ARIMA model alone.The prediction results can provide reference for the more effective protection and allocation of water resources in Beijing.
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