Analysis and prediction of annual precipitation in Huangshan City based on wavelet and ARIMA
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Abstract:
In order to identify the temporal characteristics of regional rainfall and improve the prediction accuracy of annual precipitation,the periodic variation of annual precipitation in Huangshan City from 1957 to 2016 was analyzed based on Morlet wavelet.A series of annual precipitations of Huangshan City from 1957 to 2011 was adopted to establish the ARIMA model and the combined model of ARIMA with wavelet,and both models were applied to predict the annual precipitation of Huangshan City from 2012 to 2016.The results show that the annual precipitation in Huangshan City is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuations of 28 a,13 a and 5 a.The mean absolute percentage error of the predicted annual precipitations for the period of 2012-2016 is 19.8% by applying the ARIMA model, while that for the same period is 12.3% by applying the combined model,indicating better accuracy in simulating and predicting the annual precipitation in Huangshan City by applying the combined model.Significant errors can be found in predicting the annual precipitations of Huangshan City in 2012,2015 and 2016 as different mechanism of precipitation in these years with normal years, probably resulting from an impact of ENSO events on the precipitations.As providing the scientific foundation for the regional long-and mid-term hydrological forecasting,the achievement is of certain value in management of early warning of the regional flood/drought disasters.
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