Influences of sample selection of synthetic floods from trunk stream and tributary on flood control design
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Abstract:
The correlation of variables of flood from trunk stream with those from a tributary varies with sample selection of synthetic floods,which has a certain impact on flood control design. In the case study of Guiping Shipping Hub,this paper applies Copula function to construct the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods, the annual flood peak of the trunk stream,Xunjiang, and that of the tributary,Yujiang, the annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period,and the annual flood peak of Yujiang and the flow of Xunjiang in the corresponding period.Influences of three samples of synthetic floods on flood control design are evaluated by applying stochastic simulation of synthetic floods and derivation of flood control level through flood routing.The results show that the optimum Copula function fitted by the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods is Clayton Copula.The flood control level derived according to the synthetic flood of annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period is more reasonable,neither overestimating nor underestimating flood risk,thus achieving a better balance between economy and safety.The derived flood control level for 100 year return period flood is 43.54 m,safer than the original design flood level determined by empirical method.By taking into account the correlation of flood from trunk stream with that from a tributary and the coupling relationshipbetween synthetic flood and flood routing,the Copula-Monte Carlo method adopted in this paper is considered to be more applicable to the flood control design.
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