Risk assessment and prediction of resource conflict in hydropower engineering programs from the perspective of construction enterprise
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Abstract:
Risk management in construction of hydropower engineering project is a complex system of multiparty cooperation and supply,in which resource conflict is the key jeopardy in the risk management process of construction enterprises.Aiming of the complexity and uncertainty of resource conflict risk of hydropower engineering programs,the set pair analysis theory was introduced,and a model for risk assessment and prediction of hydropower engineering programs resource conflict based on five element connection number was proposed.According to the resource conflict characteristics of hydropower engineering programs,the resource conflict risk evaluation system was established.The entropy weight method was used to estimate the weight of each evaluation index.The static risk evaluation model of identical,different,and counter risk evaluation was established by using five-element connection number,and the development trend of risk was predicted by partial connection number.The hydropower station in the upstream section of the main stream of a river basin is used as an example in the model for analysis purpose.The results show that the resource conflict risk level of the hydropower station is low,and the overall risk is gradually decreasing,but each sub-risk presents a wave like development trend,which is consistent with the actual situation,and verifies the feasibility of the model.