Dynamic health risk assessment of chromium pollution in groundwater based on the stochastic simulation
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Abstract:
Based on the spatial variability of hydrogeological parameters of a contaminated site and the change of concentration with time,a dynamic evaluation model of health risk assessment was constructed.Through a sensitivity analysis,stochastic parameters that had great influence on numerical simulations by spatial variability were selected.Two percentiles (50% and 95%) were selected to represent normal and most unfavorable condition,respectively,to predict the variation in duration of the health risk at the sensitive spot.A chromium-contaminated site in Gaocheng City,China,was selected as a case study.The results showed that the initial health risk value of sensitive spot was 0.81,while removing the contaminant plume after one year,under the normal and the most unfavorable conditions the risk values were 1.28 and 1.52,respectively.Accordingly,there was a gradually increasing non-carcinogenic risk.Under normal conditions,the risk value was not reach to acceptable level until 13th year,indicating the sensitive point.
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