based on the Budyko hypothesis in the upper reaches of the Luan River Basin
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Abstract:
In the past 50 years, evidence showed that climate change and human activities have affected the hydrological processes in the Luan River Basin. In order to identify the main causes for runoff changes, the upper reaches of the Luan River Basin are taken as the research area, and the Mann-Kendall test method is used to analyze the trend of meteorological and hydrological factors from 1966 to 2015 in the study area. Simultaneously,the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation based on the Budy ko hypothesis is established. The elastic coefficient method is used to calculate the sensitivity coefficient of the influencing factors to runoff change. Furthem1ore, a quantitative contribution assessment of each factor to runoff change is also carried out in the study area The results show that the annual runoff decreased significantly from 1966 to 2015, and there is no significant change in annual precipitation and annual evapotranspiration in the upper reaches of the Luan River Basin. Compared with the base period (1966-1979), the change of the underlying surface is the main influencing factor of runoff reduction. The contribution rate of underlying surface change to runoff change in 198C-1997 (phase I) and 1998 2015 (phase II) is 52. 68% and 88.12%, respectively. Among the climatic factors, the impact of precipitation on runoff changes is more significant compare to potential evapotranspiration.
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