Flood probabilistic forecasting based on quantile regression method
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
The quantile regression model is used to analyze the uncertainty of flood forecasting. The results of preferred value ( median of predicted probability distribution function) and 90% confidence interval of flood forecasting are provided to realize the forecast of flood probability . The performance of probabilistic forecasting obtained by the quantile regression model is evaluated using "accuracy reliability " joint evaluation index . The application results of Meigang Station in the Xinjiang River Basin show that in term o f prediction preferred value, the quantile regression model can further improve the accuracy of the flood forecasting. Simultaneously , the prediction interval results with 90% confidence level provided by the model have higher coverage ( about 90% ) and less dispersion ( less than 0. 20) , which means that the narrow prediction interval contains most of the observation, and the reliability of the forecast interval is strong.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
® 2024 All Rights Reserved
冀公网安备13010502002656号
冀公网安备13010502002656号