Inter-basin reserved water right confirmation and allocation from the perspective of ecological priority
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Abstract:
The Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Model( ARIMA ) prediction model of ecological water demand is proposed on the premise of ecological priority and green development . Based on this model, the reserved water rights confirmation model using ecological water rights is developed. Depended on the confirmed reserved water rights, the feasibility in the recon figuration of reserved developmental water rights under the options trading model is explored. The model can avoid the risks between water buyers and water sellers, meanwhile, it can achieve optimal allocation of water resources across river basins. It provides a reference for the determination and reconfiguration of special water rights across river basins. The results show ed that: the ecological water demand has changed greatly due to climate change and policy, Tianjin and Hebei do not have the capacity of reserved water for development, which needs to rely on the unified coordination of the basin scheduling center. and the basin scheduling center can do flexible price configuration based on the possible use of reserved development water in the forecast year, which can optimize the economic and social benefits.
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