Decomposition of influencing factors of agricultural virtual water consumption and its spatial and temporal differences: A case study of five provinces ( autonomous regions) in northwest China
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Abstract:
The Log arithrnic Mean Divisin Index ( LMDI) index decomposition model are used to divide the driving factors of agricultural virtual w ater content change into structural, intensity, economic and demand effects in the five northwest provinces( autonomous regions) from the 11th Five-Year plan and 12th Five-Year plan to explore their contributions and its spatial-temporal differences. The research results show that: the agricultural virtual water content in the product structure distribution, livest ock products> the three major staples> commercial crops. From the perspective of time, from 2006 to 2015, the agricultural virtual water content in the whole region showed a trend of rising-falling-rising. The economic effects and intensity effects were the main promoting and inhibitory factors of the virtual water content change. In general, Economic effect> intensity effect> structural effect> demand effect, respectively . During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the change of virtual water content in the region was mainly affected by regional economic grow th. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, agricultural production structure the adjustment has gradually inhibited the growth of virtual water content. From a spatial perspective, the inter-provincial difference in the total effect of the change invirtual water co ntent is sig nificant in the five provinces( autonomous regions) from 2006 to 2015. Xinjiang has the strongest positive effect at 11 9.426 × 1010 m3 , followed by Ningxia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi. Negative effects in Gansu is strongest dropped by 9.411×109 m3 . Based o n this, suggestions from the aspects of improving agricultural production technolog y, adjusting the production structure, compensating the water ecological environment to reduce the virtual water content in agriculture, improving the utilization of water resources, and promoting the coordinated development of regional economics and ecology .
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