Evolution of correlation analysis of hydro-meteorological variables in the basin under changing environment
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Abstract:
In order to evaluate and investigate the correlation structures of hydro-meteo rological variables in the Wei River basin, the t ime-frequency domain correlation analysis and long-range correlation analysis were carried out by cross wavelet analysis, detrended fluctuat ion analysis ( DFA ) , detrended cross-correlation analysis ( DCCA) , and detrended partial cross-correlation analysis ( DPXA) . The results of cross wavelet analysis show that correlation between precipitation ( P) , panevaporation ( E) , and runoff depth ( R) differ at different time-frequency domain. In terms of correlation structure, there were 122 years and 82 year periods existed in the system co nsisted of P, R, and E. On the macroscale, the multi-scale correlation structures between precipitation and runoff degraded and resonance period were reduced. Long-range correlation analysis showed that the Hurst index of R, E, and P sequences were greater than 0. 5, showing long-term persistence characteristics. The current precipitation ( runoff and evaporation) might have an impact on the pr ecipitation ( runoff and evaporation) at a certain time in the future. The DCCA results show that there was a long-rang ecorrelation between P and R, while an inverse long-range correlation existed between P2E and R2E, showing different cross-correlation structures. The DPXA results show that the long-range correlation change and turn into long-rang ecorrelation, implying the feed-back characterist ics of long-range correlation among P, R, and E. Compared with the results of DCCA, the DPXA was more persuasive. The sliding-window analysis ( 30 years) showed that the long-rang ecorrelation between P2R and P2E did not change in the time domain, and the possible incr ease of precipitation in the future may lead to the increase of runoff and indirectly lead to the incr ease of evapor ation in the Wei River basin. The long-range correlation betwen R2E changed from long-range inverse correlation to long-range correlation in 1962, and then the long-rang ecorrelation continued to increase, indicating that future evaporation changes in the Wei River basin may cause more runoff fluctuations. Therefore, water resources management based on ET control may have a certain significance to increase the av ailable water amount in the Wei River basin.
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