Identification of the critical state from drought to disaster
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Abstract:
There is a critical stage in the process from drought to disaster. In order to identify the critical state of drought disaster, a metho d based on principal component a nalysis and support vector machine is proposed. The principal component analysis method is used tor educe the dimensionality of severa lindexes that can reflect the duration, severity , and extremum of drought, and to remove the r edundant information of the correlated multiple indicators. The support vector machine is used to find the optimal classification plane based on the historical drought records. The potential drought samples are classified into drought samples a nd disaster samples based o n this classification plane. This classification plane can be phenom enologically defined as the critical state plane of drought-disa stert ransition. The development process and trend of drought can berevea led more intuitively , which is convenient to popularize and a pply to assess drought warnings. The sub-basin above Shiquan in the Hanjiang River basin is selected as a case study , and 1 07 po tential drought samples are selected according to certain principles. The above-proposed method is used to identify the disaster samples according to the historical drought records, with accuracies of 8 8.6% and 78.6 % in calibration and validation periods, respectively .
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