Quantitative analysis of runoff evolution and driving factors in the upper reaches of Datong River
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Abstract:
In the past 60 years, temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspirat ion in the upper reaches of Datong River, which is located in the Qilian Mountain area, the northw est edge of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, have increased significantly, with the synthetic effect of 50% glacial ablation, permafrost degradation, and 797 km2 marsh degradation in the source area, annual runoff depth increased with a trend of 6.0 mm/(10 a); the base flow segmentation indicates that the total baseflow and its prportion have both increased since the runoff abrupt change,The base flow in August changed from the valley value between July and September to the peak;a quantitative analysis of the driving factors of the increase in runoff is carried out by the climate elasticity method based on the Budyko assumption. Compared with the base period,the annual runoff depth changes by +33.6mm after the sudden change of runoff, and the increase in precipitation affects +18.3mm. The effect of evapotranspiration change is-3.0 mm, the effect of glacier melting on runoff increment is at most +10.0 mm, and the remaining term +8.3mm is the combined effect of frozen soil degradation and error terms. Due to the different influence mechanism and duration of each element, the future hy drological situation is still unclear.
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