Changes of domestic water consumption and its driving mechanism in the period of new urbanization of Guangdong
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Abstract:
The multi-regional LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) decomposition model is developed to analyze the driving effect of domestic water consumption changes caused by the demographic and urbanization process of 21 cities in Guangdong Province,according to the perspective of spatial and temporal changes. The LMDI method (LMDI-I) was used to perform additive decomposition on the changes of domestic water use.Based on the traditional method,factors such as population distribution and urbanrural structure were incorporated into the factor decomposition model to explore the driving mechanism of each factor on the change of total domestic water consumption. The results show that: (1) The total domestic water consumption in Guangdong increased steadily,and urban domestic water consumption has increased significantly with an average annual rate of 1.4%.Since the process of new urbanization,the domestic water consumption in rural households dropped and per capita domestic water consumption showed a obviously descending trend.(2) From a regional perspective,the proportion of urban water consumption to domestic water consumption continued to increase,especially in the northern Guangdong with the proportion of urban domestic water consumption increasing from 43.8% in 2009 to 52.8% in 2018.(3) The demographic change factor was the most important positive driving effect leading to the increase in the total domestic water consumption,followed by the population distribution factor and urbanization factor.The water intensity factor was a negative driving effect,delaying the increase in total domestic water consumption.Urbanization factor had a positive impact on the increase in domestic water consumption in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,but had a negative impact on the total domestic water consumption in the other regions. In order to ensure the supply of domestic water during the new urbanization period,it is necessary to further strengthen the overall planning of urban and rural domestic water in various regions,comprehensively consider the differences in regional water scarcity,and innovate the regional water resources differential management mechanism.Meanwhile on the premise of satisfying the demand of the basic water consumption indicators of the region,areas with significant water performance will be allocated [JP2]with more water consumption indicators,which can help generate endogenous power for water saving in the region,and increase the overall carrying capacity of regional water resources to provide a guarantee for the sustainable development of new urbanization.
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