Flooding prediction for a rainy,dense-population river basin of central China
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Abstract:
Watershed runoff forecasting has been a research focus on hydrological model and flooding prediction.In China,Xinanjiang (XAJ) model is a widely used for flood forecasting,which is of significance to areas with booming economy,dense population,and high flooding risks,such as those located in central China.The Fu River basin located in Jiangxi Province is a rainy area with abundant precipitation (average annual rainfall is 1 761 mm).A lumped hydrological model,three-source XAJ model based on excess storage runoff generation,was established to simulate 18 rainstorms and floods in Fu River basin from 1981 to 1995.Muskingen′s piecewise continuous algorithm was used to calculate river flood routing and the flow process line.The processes of the flow and flood were determined by linear superposition of all the flow processes.Parameters were calibrated by daily data and frequency data.Results showed that the average deterministic coefficient of the model in the field flood simulation was 0911,the average error of runoff depth for model calibration was 4.73%,and the average error of runoff depth for validation was 8.21%.Therefore,the three-source XAJ model could be used as a useful forecasting model in the flood forecasting system of Fu River basin.The useful references were provided for flood forecasting research in the rainy central China.
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