Risk evaluation of hydropower station accidents based on combination weighting of game theory
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Abstract:
The research on the risk of hydropower station mainly focuses on the construction of hydropower station,while there are few studies on the risk assessment of the hydropower plant operation.The accidents in the operation of hydropower station show a trend of diversification and complexity.It is particularly difficult to evaluate hydropower station risk level from the perspective of single risk mechanism.Therefore,based on the accident data during the operation period of the hydropower station,the risk level of the hydropower station can be analyzed effectively by the comprehensive evaluation based on the index system of risk factors. The single weighting method in traditional risk assessment has certain limitations and the risk level of hydropower station is difficult to be objectively determined.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for hydropower station risk has been established based on the FAHP-CRITIC-game theory method.The risk factors are determined by accident causation theory and the index system of risk factors has been established.The membership degree function is used to calculate the membership degree of each risk index based on the accident loss amount and the fuzzy relation matrix has been obtained.The subjective weight and objective weight of the factors are calculated by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC method respectively,and the combinatorial optimization is carried out by the game theory method to make the weighting more reasonable.The fuzzy relation matrix and combination weight are used to have the multi-level fuzzy evaluation.The risk assessment of a cascade hydropower station is carried out and the risk grade of hydropower station is determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree. Among the natural environmental risks,the weights of torrential rains and flood and debris flow are relatively high.In the risk of power operation,the weights of current shock and overvoltage are higher.In the risk of construction and equipment,equipment failure is the main index of risk,and its importance is relatively higher than engineering quality problems.Natural environment risk and power operation risk have higher subordination degree to the low risk level,while construction and equipment risk has a high degree of subordination to the general risk level because of the relatively high probability of occurrence and loss.The results show that the risk level of the hydropower station is low risk,and the main risk indicators are torrential rains and floods and equipment failures. According to the risk factors that affect the safety of hydropower station,the index system of risk factors is established from three aspects:natural environment,electric operation,construction and equipment,which includes 13 corresponding evaluation factors.FAHP and CRITIC methods are used to calculate the subjective and objective weight respectively and the combined weight is given by game theory,which improves the rationality of weight calculation.The membership function has been established based on the amount of accident compensation and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is conducted.The risk assessment of hydropower station is carried out.The risk assessment result of hydropower station is low risk and the main risk indicators are storm flood and equipment failure.The result is consistent with the practical situation of the cascade hydropower plant,which verifies the reliability and practicability of the evaluation model.
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