Improved three-level water resources carrying capacity method based on classification of water use efficiency
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Abstract:
Current three-level water resources carrying capacity analysis method is not accurate enough to calculate the comprehensive water use efficiency,which is greatly affected by agriculture due to its high-proportion of water use and low water use efficiency.It is difficult to truly reflect the water use efficiency changes of other high-efficiency industries.Under such mode of analysis,It is highly possible that water for agriculture is occupied by other industries,which is not in line with the principle of " water dominates land " and relevant policies for food safety.Therefore,in order to guarantee agricultural water demand and more accurately describe the water use efficiency changes in light of the characteristics of regional industries,agricultural water demand is analyzed separately,thus the bearable economic scale is figured out by water consumption per unit added value of secondary and tertiary industries and the available water resources with deduction of agricultural water demand.Further derivation of the calculation formula simplifies the calculation process,eliminates the need for checking and iterative calculation,and improves the accuracy of results.Through the formula and adjustment of parameters,the influence of regional industrial characteristics on carrying capacity can be reflected more accurately. In the case study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,which has a high proportion of agricultural water consumption,the water use efficiency and industrial proportion were confirmed for calculation of water carrying capacity by two carrying levels of comprehensive well-off society and basic modernization.The population and economic scale that regional water resources can support in different carrying levels were calculated by the original method and improved method respectively.The results showed that the bearable population decreased by the improved method,while basically remained unchanged by the original method.The reason was that the agricultural water demand did not change in the calculation of the improved method,while the original method reduced the agricultural water consumption with the improvement of comprehensive efficiency,transferred it to other industries with higher added value,and improved the carrying economic scale and population.However,it brought about the problem of whether the agricultural water could be effectively guaranteed.The results showed that the agricultural water use efficiency changed with the overall economic levels and lacked of mechanism of decision-making conditions in the original three-level analysis method.The improved method could take the impact of the change of agricultural water use into account,adapt to the analysis and calculation under the rigid constraints of water resources and the principle of "water dominates development ".It proved that the impact of agricultural water on bearing capacity was more accurate and the result was more reasonable,through the comparison of different boundary of agricultural water demand. The formula for directly solving the regional bearable population was deduced to avoid the iteration calculation.Effect of the major factors on water carrying capacity of this method was figured out by adjusting the three variables of agricultural water consumption,GDP per capita and industrial water efficiency.When the agricultural water withholding was gradually reduced,the carrying population and GDP showed a straight increasing trend.When GDP per capita increased gradually,the regional carrying population decreased,while the carrying GDP increased.When the comprehensive water efficiency of the secondary and tertiary industries was gradually improved,the regional carrying population and GDP showed an exponential upward trend.The analysis shows that in order to achieve the planned population target and living standard,it is necessary to reduce agricultural water consumption and improve the water efficiency of secondary and tertiary industries under the condition of rapid growth of per capita GDP.If agricultural water consumption and water efficiency of secondary and tertiary industries are limited,economic development speed should be limited.
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