Risk assessment of river-type water source areas based on an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
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Abstract:
River-type water source area is an important ecological environment foundation that can provide abundant and clean water sources for the normal work and operation of cities,which simultaneously is threatened by various risk sources with the advancement of urbanization and the continuous development of society.Therefore,all possible influencing factors should be considered when evaluating the risk of river-type water source areas. A risk assessment index system of river-type water source areas was constructed including twenty-two indicators from the four aspects of water pollution,water shortage,ecological environment,and management protection with the aid of the Pressure-State-Response model based on principles of comprehensiveness,practicability,maneuverability,and identifying potential risk sources,understanding the connotation of risks of water source areas and risk identification methods to scientifically assess the risk level of river-type water source areas and effectively ensure the safety of river-type water source areas.Further,the corresponding index risk threshold was analyzed and determined to achieve quantitative or qualitative expression.The weight of indicators was assigned and calculated by the combination weighting method of entropy weight and the analytic hierarchy process.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory,the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was improved according to the validity degree principle and weighted average principle,and an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of rivertype water source areas was established,which fully considered the role of all index membership,reduced the error,and enhanced the scientificity and objectivity of evaluating risk levels. Taking the Zihuizhou water source area of the Yangtze River in Nanjing as an example,the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to quantitatively evaluate the risk status of land and water area in the 20 km buffer zone outside the quasi-protection area of Zihuizhou water source area in 2019.The calculated results showed that the comprehensive risk assessment result of Zihuizhou water source area was 0.216 7,which belonged to the lower risk level.Specifically,the risk of water pollution was at the lower risk level,the risk of water shortage was at the lowrisk level,the risk of ecological environment was at the lower risk level,and the risk of management and protection was at the lowrisk level.Among these four aspects,the risk to the ecological environment was the most obvious,and the investment in environmental protection should be continuously increased to provide a practical guarantee for the ecological environment around the water source area.Overall,the construction and management of the Zihuizhou water source area of the Yangtze River were good,and the calculated results were consistent with the actual situation,which had high reliability. The risk assessment index system can comprehensively evaluate the risk of rivertype water source areas from four aspects:water pollution,water shortage,ecological environment and management and protection.The validity degree principle and the weighted average principle were used to improve the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for assessing the risk of river-type water source areas.The risk assessment results in Zihuizhou water source area of the Yangtze River were determined to be at the lower risk level,and the overall management was good.It can be concluded that the existing hidden dangers were mainly the risk factors such as the close distribution of dock enterprises and low vegetation coverage in Zihuizhou water source area,and there was a great space for progress in ecological environment risk control.The risk level of Zihuizhou water source can be descended through risk control measures such as the construction of industrial and domestic sewage treatment projects,timely investigation of sudden water pollution accidents,and construction of ecological environment protection projects.
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