Spatial-temporal variation of water environment carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
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Abstract:
Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) is one of the important strategic development regions in China which has created more than 2/5 of China′s GDP,but it faces the conflicts between economic development and water environment protection.With the rapid development of economic-society,human activities have more and more impacts on the water environment,therefore it is of great significance to study the water environment carrying capacity (WECC) of this area,in which the spatial-temporal variation of WECC are an important content. In most previous related studies,some method are usually used to determine the grade of WECC.In fact,WECC is a fuzzy concept,and the boundary between two adjacent grades is not clear.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the law of unity of opposites between adjacent grades in the evaluation of WECC.Variable set method is an important uncertainty mathematical theory in the field of water resources system analysis.The variable set method is used to calculate the relative membership degree,and the index based on grade eigenvalue is used to characterize the state of WECC.Focusing on the dual effects of natural background and human activities,the evaluation index system of WECC is constructed from the three subsystems of water resources,ecological environment and economy and society,and a water environment carrying capacity index (WECCI) model is established based on variable set method,and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of WECC in YEB are discussed. The results show that the WECCI of YEB increased from 4.20 to 6.08,showing a basic trend of increasing year by year;The WECCI in the upper,middle and lower reaches is becoming more and more balanced,the variance decreased by 57.27% from 0.14 to 0.06,but increased slightly in 2018;The constraints have spatial differentiation characteristics;The ecological environment subsystem of upper reaches is relatively weak,but the gap is narrowing year by year;The restriction of water resources subsystem in the middle reaches is becoming more and more prominent;The economic-society subsystem of lower reaches maintains significant advantages all year round,while the water resources subsystem lags behind seriously;In 2018,except Zhejiang,the WECC showed that the upper reaches were better than the middle reaches,and the middle reaches were better than the lower reaches.According to the provinces(manicipalities),Zhejiang,Sichuan,Chongqing,Yunnan,Guizhou,Hunan,Jiangxi,Hubei,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Anhui were ranked from high to low. The WECC of YEB has improved year by year from 2009 to 2018,and has an obvious spatial distribution law;The water resources subsystem has a significant restrictive effect on the improvement of WECC of the current YEB and become one of the main contradictions that need to be paid attention to in the process of improving the WECC of YEB.Analyzing the temporal-spatial variation and main interference factors of WECC of YEB and its region can provide reference for the formulation of sustainable and high-quality development policies of YEB.
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