Spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of water resources ecological security: Case study in Shandong section of the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project
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Abstract:
Shandong of the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Hereinafter referred to as Shandong section) is the main water receiving area of the first phase of the east route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, and its water resources ecological security (WRES) research can provide reference for the implementation of subsequent projects. Based on the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model, an evaluation indicators system of WRES was discussed, and then the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of WRES were studied by coupling the projection decision method with modulus similarity and Gini coefficient method.From the perspective of time series, WRES in 14 cities of Shandong section has generally become better year by year, and the comprehensive ranking value has increased from 0.463 1 in 2011 to 0.623 4 in 2019. However, the situation is not optimistic, and there is still a large gap from the ideal state. Among the 126 samples, only 25. 4% had a ranking value of more than 0.6, 6. 3% more than 0.7, and only Dongying reached 0.8 in 2019. Population and economic development are important factors affecting WRES, which also shows that human beings have more and more influence on the water resources system while pursuing the rapid development of economy and society. In 2019, with the exception of Dongying, the response subsystem is better than the pressure subsystem and the state subsystem to varying degrees, especially the lag of the pressure subsystem. The Shandong section is generally facing great pressure on WRES, and it has not been effectively alleviated during the study period. Especially Heze and Zaozhuang, the pressure subsystem of the two cities is in a relatively backward position all the year round. The strong man-made control measures in various cities have alleviated the risks brought by the pressure subsystem to a certain extent, making the level of WRES improve year by year.From the perspective of space, the spatial equilibrium state of Shandong section of east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project has great differences in 9 indicators, but the interannual variation range is small, which indicates that there are differences among various systems in the Shandong section, but it has maintained a good coordinated development trend as a whole. Comprehensively considering the nine indicators, WRES spatial equilibrium index of Shandong section from 2011 to 2019 is stable at about 0.2, and fluctuates slightly up and down at the critical point of very equilibrium and general equilibrium. However, from the perspective of single indicators, there are significant differences in the investment proportion of water management industry, water consumption per 10 000-yuan GDP, per capita water resources and fertilizer application intensity, and there is no obvious sign of improvement. The multi-year average Gini coefficient of per capita GDP is 0.25, slightly biased towards imbalance, but relatively stable. Population density, 10 000-yuan GDP, industrial sewage discharge, sewage treatment rate and green coverage rate of built-up areas have always been in a very balanced state, especially the sewage treatment rate and green coverage rate of built-up areas are almost absolutely balanced. The impact of human activities, especially water use efficiency, on WRES is becoming more and more prominent. The east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project has played an important role in promoting the WRES in Shandong.In general, the comprehensive model constructed is practical and effective for temporal evolution and spatial equilibrium analysis. The temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of WRES in Shandong section can provide some guidance for the formulation and implementation of relevant policies for the follow-up of the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Besides, the results can also provide reference for other relevant studies and support regional coordinated development and environmental protection.
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