Quantitative analysis of runoff reduction factors in the Fenhe River basin
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Abstract:
Under the combined effect of climate change and human activities, there is a sharp decline in the Fenhe River runoff, which aggravates the shortage of water resources in the middle and lower Yellow River. To quantify the contribution of climatic factors, vegetation, and human water use to runoff reduction, the evolution above characteristics is carried out from 1981 to 2015 in the Fenhe River basin. A distributed hydrological model and a factor detrending method were used to quantitatively analyze the contribution of the changes in precipitation, net radiation, temperature, leaf area index, and human water use to the runoff reduction. The results revealed that annual precipitation and net radiation showed an insignificant ( p>0.05) increasing and decreasing trend during the study period. The annual temperature and leaf area index (LAI) showed a significant ( p<0.05) increasing trend and human water use showed a significant ( p<0.05) increasing trend. These factors jointly led to a significant ( p<0.05) decrease in annual runoff in the Fenhe river basin. The increase in human water use was the primary factor leading to the reduction of annual runoff. The observed mean annual runoff increased by 27.4% under the trend-free scenario of human water use. Warming and vegetation greening were the main natural factors causing runoff reduction, while the effect of net radiation was limited. Under the trend-free scenarios of the above three factors, the mean annual observed runoff increased by 14.4%, 13.7%, and 2.1%, respectively. The increase in annual precipitation partly alleviated the decrease in the annual runoff. The observed mean annual runoff decreased by 5.3% under the trend-free scenario of annual precipitation. The findings of this research may provide guidelines for water resources management and plan in the Fenhe River basin.
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