Vulnerability assessment of water resources based on pressure-state-response model in Xinjiang
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Abstract:
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in the world. Since Shiyafeng pointed out in 2003 that the climate in Xinjiang had changed from "warm-dry" to "warm-wet", many scholars researched climate change in Xinjiang. However, most of these studies mainly focused on the trend of climate change and the impact on runoff, vegetation, glaciers, etc., and rarely combined the environmental change with the social economy. The annual average precipitation in Xinjiang is about 153 mm, and the characteristics of oasis economy and irrigation agriculture make its water resources closely linked with regional development. A comprehensive method for water resources vulnerability is used to evaluate the water resources situation in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2019.The vulnerability of water resources can comprehensively indicate the adverse effects of climate change and human activities on water resources system and the measures taken by human society to maintain the balance of water system. The evaluation index system, which included a target layer, criterion layer, and index layer was established by this model and 25 indexes were selected because the causal relationship between water resources vulnerability elements (exposure, sensitivity, adaptability) and human activities can be accurately expressed with the pressure-state-response model. The vulnerability of water resources was divided into five grades, including non-vulnerability, slight vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, severe vulnerability, and extreme vulnerability. After gaining the indexes’ data, the vulnerability standards of each index were obtained through the equal distance dispersion method, and the index weight was calculated by the entropy weight method. The vulnerability level of water resources in Xinjiang was gained by the set pair analysis, which could deal with the certainty and uncertainty within and between systems, and had been well applied in the field of water resources.The results showed that Xinjiang was severely vulnerable in 2010 and 2014, moderately vulnerable in 2011-2013 and 2015-2016, and slightly vulnerable in 2017-2019, which shows the vulnerability level of water resources in Xinjiang gradually decreased except in 2014. Comparing the vulnerability of the criterion layer and index layer with the comprehensive vulnerability of the system, it can be seen that the vulnerability of pressure layer’s climate change indicators was unstable, while the human activity indicators had obvious vulnerability trends. Among the 10 indicators of pressure layer, the natural growth rate of population was mainly severe-vulnerability, and the vulnerability of GDP growth rate, per capita water consumption, water consumption of 10 000 yuan industrial added value and water consumption of 10 000 yuan GDP was significantly improved. However, fertilizer and energy consumption were increased to severely vulnerable. In the state layer, in addition to water production coefficient and forest coverage, other indicators had a low vulnerability, but attention should be paid to the degree of water resources development. The vulnerability of per capita GDP in the response layer gradually declined from 2010 to 2019. While the vulnerability of irrigation conservation, water conservancy projects and afforestation didn’t decrease until recent years. Nevertheless, wastewater treatment, environmental protection institutions and water consumption in the ecological environment were still inadequate. From 2010 to 2014, the vulnerability level of the criterion layer was mainly moderate vulnerability and severe vulnerability and it began to decline to slightly vulnerable from 2015. The vulnerability change trend of the state layer was the closest to that of the system.On the whole, the vulnerability situation of water resources in Xinjiang has gradually improved, and the vulnerability level of some indicators decreased too. In the future, we should not only strengthen the monitoring and governance of indicators with high and unstable vulnerability but also stabilize indicators with low vulnerability to maintain the vulnerability of regional water resources at a low level.
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