Assessment of precipitation forecasting product's adaptability in small and medium-sized basins in different hydrometeorological regions
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Abstract:
Rainfall data is one of the main factors that can affect the accuracy of flood simulation in small and medium rivers, and rainfall forecasting is the most direct means of extending the forecast period. At present, there are many precipitation forecast product evaluations and post-processing methods, but the research on the applicability evaluation, accuracy improvement, and forecast of each product is still insufficient in different hydrometeorological subregions. Through the detailed evaluation after applying different correction methods, the numerical forecast products and suitable rainfall correction methods are sought for small and medium basins in different hydrometeorological regions. This research aimed to provide a reliable basis for improving the flood forecasting accuracy and forecast period of medium and small rivers.This research took Tunxi and Suide basins and selected the 2010 to 2015 control forecast data of three products (NCEP, ECMWF, and CMA). The QUANT method and the RQUANT method were used for forecasting rainfall correction, and the multi-classification forecast test, continuous forecast test, and probabilistic forecast test methods were used to compare and analyze the applicability of different forecast products and different correction methods. Taking the measured rainfall in the Tunxi basin as an example, the rainfall was resampled by adding a noise term, and the influence of rainfall uncertainty on the hydrological simulation results was analyzed based on the Xin'anjiang model.The results showed that the selected forecast products had high forecast accuracy for no-rain and light-rain periods. With the increase in rainfall, the forecast ability of each product decreased significantly. The test showed that the rainfall forecast effect in the Suide basin was better, and the overall forecasting accuracy of NCEP and ECMWF was well in the study basin. The forecast accuracy of CMA is slightly worse than that of other products. The prediction accuracy of most of the inspection indicators for each product was improved after the correction. Among them, ECMWF had the highest prediction accuracy in the Suide basin and had good applicability to both correction methods. The prediction accuracy of NCEP and ECMWF after different correct methods was different in the Tunxi basin. CMA's corrected TS score forecast accuracy was superior to other products only in the heavy rains weight level. The uncertainty of rainfall had a negative impact on the hydrological simulation, which led to the uncertainty of the parameters and a decrease in the accuracy of the hydrological simulation.The research provided a reference for selecting suitable numerical forecast products and correction methods for different hydrometeorological regions. Semi-arid areas like Suide basin should use ECMWF revised forecast products, and in humid watersheds like Tunxi basin, NCEP and ECMWF products and correction methods should be selected according to the needs of application indicators, which can reduce rainfall forecast errors in certain procedures and improve the accuracy of flood simulations.
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