Study of comprehensive risk evaluation for inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project
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Abstract:
Inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project is generally across multiple provinces and river basins, and normally has a lot of crossing terrain and river-channel-cross, and its hydrogeological environment is complex. Meanwhile, the water transfer project has a larger relationship with the development of local society, economy, ecology, and so on, which relates to lots of risk factors such as the risk of project operation, various types of buildings, flood, dispatching operation, and public safety emergencies. Every type of risk indicator exists at different levels, ranks, and arrangements, and there are both independence and correlation between different risk factors. Therefore, it is hard to evaluate the comprehensive risk of this kind of water transfer project.Multiple-level structure models of risk integration and technology roadmap of risk comprehensive evaluation were proposed. A risk indicator system and risk level standard were built based on risk identification, and a risk integration method was designed. The steps of the method were as follows: The project was divided into several units. The weights of all risk indicators were confirmed. The comprehensive risk value of each unit was calculated. The risk level of the whole project was calculated based on the risk of all units. Considering the difficulty that different units have different risk factors, a risk indicator weight-correcting method was proposed. And the inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project risk integration software was developed based on the risk integration method that was proposed above.A management area of an inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project was taken as an example to calculate and analyze. The management area was divided into 32 units. All risk indicator weights of every unit were corrected based on the initial weights. The comprehensive risk value of every unit was calculated. The overall risk level of the management area was Ⅱ calculated by the developed risk integration software, and the calculation results of the grey clustering analysis method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, radar chart method, matter-element theory, Bayesian formula method, Nemerow indicator method, and comprehensive indicator method shown high consistency. The number of risk indicators of all units was counted by different risk levels, and the result showed that the quantity relationship of different risk indicators is: Ⅱ>Ⅰ>Ⅲ>Ⅳ, and the number of Ⅱ risk indicators is larger than those of Ⅰ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ. This also verified the rationality of the calculation result.The risk indicator system that was built considered the complexity and diversity of the inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project. The risk level standard that was formulated considered the risk possibility and seriousness. The risk integration method that was proposed firstly divided the project into several units, secondly calculated the comprehensive risk value of each unit, and finally got the overall risk of the project, and it handled the problem that it is difficult to evaluate the overall risk level of the inter-basin and long-distance water transfer project. The actual case analysis showed that the risk levels of a management area calculated by the 7 methods were all II which was reasonable after the analysis.
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