Evolution law of water resources in Songhua River basin based on hydrological simulation of frozen soil
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Abstract:
Under climate change and human activities, the evolution law of water resources in the Songhua River basin had changed drastically. Most of the existing studies were about the influence of climate change and human activities on the measured runoff, and few of them were concerned with the evolution law of surface and groundwater resources in the basin during the freeze-thaw period and the non-freeze-thaw period. In other cold regions with high-intensity human activities, the existing researchers also paid less attention to water resources.The water and energy transfer processes and nitrogen cycle processes model in cold regions (WEP-N) was used to model the water cycle in the Songhua River basin. Based on the WEP-N model, the monthly average surface discharge, soil discharge, base discharge, groundwater recharge, precipitation, and river evaporation of each sub-basin in the basin were calculated. Water resources evaluation method, the surface water resources, non-repeated groundwater resources, and total water resources of the Songhua River basin were evaluated during the whole year, the freeze-thaw period, and the non-freeze-thaw period before and after 1998 (1999-2018 and 1956-1998). The result showed that the annual total water resources, surface water resources, and non-overlapped groundwater resources in the Songhua River basin were 97.74 billion, 83.73 billion, and 1.40 billion m3 during the base period (1956-1998) and 76.04 billion, 62.70 billion and 1.33 billion m3 during the change period (1999-2018), respectively. Due to the change in climate and water consumption, the annual total water resources in the Songhua River basin decreased by 21.7 billion m3, with a rate of change of ?22.2%. Among them, the decrease in surface water resources was 21.02 billion m3, with a rate of change of ?25.1%. The reduction of non-overlapped groundwater resources was 0.68 million m3, with a rate of change of ?4.9%. The decrease in the annual surface water resources accounted for 96.9% of the reduction of total water resources. Groundwater resources (non-overlapped with surface water) accounted for 3.1%. The contribution rates of climate change to the reduction of annual total water resources, surface water resources, and groundwater resources in the Songhua River basin were 81.6%, 74.9%, and 286.6% based on the multifactor attribution analysis respectively. The contribution rates of water use were 18.4%, 25.1%, and ?186.6%, respectively. From the analysis of different periods in the year, the reduction of total water resources during the non-freeze-thaw period accounted for 82.6% of the reduction of annual total water resources. The freeze-thaw period accounted for 17.4%. The decrease in annual total water resources was caused mainly by the decrease in the annual surface water resources. Based on the multifactor attribution analysis, the result showed that climate change was the main factor for the reduction of water resources in the Songhua River basin. From the analysis of different periods in the year, the non-freeze-thaw period was the main period for the reduction of annual water resources. Compared with the Haihe River basin and the Yellow River basin in the north, the reduction extent of water resources and the main influencing factors were different, which mainly depended on the intensity of climate change and human activity. Compared with the Haihe River basin and the Yellow River basin in north China and northwest China, the impact of climate change on the attenuation of water resources in the Songhua River basin was almost the same as that in the Haihe River basin, which was larger than the Yellow River basin. However, the impact of human activities on the attenuation of water resources in the Songhua River basin was smaller than that in the two basins.
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