Simulation of coordinated development of water-economy-ecology system coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
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Abstract:
As an organic whole, the system of "water-economy-ecology" complements each other, and the coupled and coordinated development is the premise of realizing high quality regional development. However, as the problem of resource supply and economic development derailment gradually emerged, the phenomenon of multi-system imbalance and regional development imbalance became more serious, which restricted the high-quality development of the region.In view of the imbalance and instability of water resources, economic society and ecological environment system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, a dynamic simulation model of "water-economy-ecological" system was constructed, and five scenarios were set up, including open source and reduce expenditure, economic development and environmental protection, to predict the development trend of water resources, economic society and ecological environment system indicators in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The coupling coordination degree model was used to simulate the development trend of coupling coordination under different scenarios in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2020 to 2035.The results show that under five scenarios from 2020 to 2035, the coupling coordination degree of water-economy-ecological system in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will all show an increasing trend, among which the coupling coordination degree of the continuation of the status quo will be the lowest, followed by the coupling coordination degree of the open source and expenditure reduction, economic development and environmental protection, and the comprehensive coordination degree will be the highest. It indicates that under the condition of maintaining the current development, the degree of coordinated development of water-economy-ecological system coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increases slightly but changes little. Only when water conservation and economic development are fully considered while environmental protection can regional coordinated development be promoted. Continuation of the status quo in 2035 Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei scenario coupled coordination development level all belong to the intermediate type coupling coordination, comprehensive coordination situation of Beijing and Tianjin coupling coordination development belongs to the good coupling coordination model, coupling due to economic development is relatively lagging in Hebei Province coordinated development is slow, still belong to the intermediate type coupling coordination, should pay attention to the integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region development in the future.In conclusion, the research results can provide a reference for the sustainable economic and social development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
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