Evolution analysis and model study of industrial water dissipation in Beijing
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Abstract:
With the accelerating expansion of cities and the development of social economy, the shortage of water resources is gradually becoming an obstacle. For northern China, the shortage of water resources is more serious. Industry is the pillar of the national economy. In the rapid development process of industry, it consumes a lot of water resources at the same time. Facing the increasing pressure of industrial water use, scientific and reasonable analysis of the changing law of industrial water use and its driving factors is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of industry. Most of the current research focuses on the water intake and use in the industrial production process, and the research on industrial water dissipation is less, especially on the water dissipation of industrial sub industries. As an important part of urban water dissipation, industrial water dissipation refers to the water directly solidified in products and food during industrial production and transported out of the area and consumed in the process of production activities. The value is equal to the difference between industrial water intake and drainage, which can more intuitively reflect the water dissipation in industrial production.Beijing was taken as the study area, where the problem of water shortage is very prominent. 39 industrial sectors in Beijing were screened and consolidated, and were reconsolidated into 9 departments according to industry similarity: Mining and dressing industry, Food industry, Textile clothing and furniture manufacturing industry, Papermaking printing and stationery manufacturing, Petrochemical industry, Metal smelting and products industry, Mechanical equipment manufacturing, Electricity, steam, hot water, gas, tap water production and supply industry, Other industries. Based on the principle of water balance, the evolution and structure of water dissipation in various industrial sectors were calculated and analyzed. By selecting the relevant indicators that affect industrial water dissipation and establishing the industrial water consumption calculation model, then the model parameters were calibrated with multiple regression method. From 2001 to 2020, with the adjustment of industrial structure and the improvement of water saving level, the industrial water consumption in Beijing has shown a downward trend generally, from 710 million m3/a in 2001 to 227 million m3/a in 2020. In addition to mining and dressing industry, water dissipation of other 8 departments showed a downward trend, among which metal smelting and products industry and textile clothing and furniture manufacturing industry had the most significant decline. Water dissipation in 2020 was 98.1% and 96.2% lower than that in 2001 respectively. Based on the water dissipation and economic data of Beijing’s industrial sectors from 2001 to 2019, the model parameters were calibrated, and the R2 of multiple regression results of industrial sectors was greater than 0.75. The model was verified by the water dissipation and economic data of Beijing’s industrial sectors in 2020. The results showed that the error between the model calculated value and the actual value was all within 10%, and the error between the total industrial water dissipation by summarizing industrial sectors and the actual value was only 1.34%, indicating that the constructed model could better reflect the industrial water dissipation. Industrial water dissipation occurs in the process of industrial water use and is closely related to industrial water use. It is affected by many factors such as economic scale, industrial structure, water use efficiency, and scientific and technological level. Exploring the evolution trend and analyzing the mechanism of water dissipation can provide references for the adjustment of urban industrial structure and rational allocation of water resources in the future.
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