Characteristics of temporal-spatial drought distribution in Shandong Province based on cloud model
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Abstract:
With?the?acceleration?of?global?warming?and?frequent?occurrence?of?agricultural?natural?disasters,?drought has?become?an?important?restrictive?factor?for?agricultural?production?in?Shandong?Province?and?has?caused?huge losses?to?agriculture.?As?an?important?region?of?the?national?ecological?protection?and?high-quality?development strategy?in?the?Yellow?River?basin,?the?high-quality?development?of?ecological?agriculture?is?particularly?important in ?Shandong ?Province, ?and ?drought ?is ?one ?of ?the ?limiting ?factors ?affecting ?the ?high-quality ?development ?of ecological?agriculture.?So?the?study?of?drought?is?becoming?more?and?more?important.?In?recent?years,?there?have been?more?and?more?research?on?extreme?drought?monitoring,?risk?assessment?models?and?systems,?and?a?variety?of meteorological?hydrological?drought?index?models?have?been?widely?used.?The?precipitation?anomaly?percentage model ?is ?superior ?to ?the ?other ?drought ?index ?models ?because ?it ?can ?directly ?reflect ?the ?drought ?caused ?by precipitation.?Although?some?research?has?been?conducted?in?recent?years?on?temporal-spatial?drought?distribution, there?are?few?researches?on?the?fuzziness,?randomness?and?unevenness?of?drought?distribution. ??????Based?on?the?measured?data?of?meteorological?data?from?1951?to?2017?in?29?meteorological?stations?in?Shandong Province,?the?precipitation?anomaly?percentage?is?used?as?the?evaluation?index?of?meteorological?drought?grade,?the cloud ?model ?is ?used ?to ?study ?the ?uniformity ?and ?stability ?characteristics ?of ?the ?drought ?spatial ?and ?temporal distribution ?in ?Shandong ?Province ?and ?the ?inverse ?distance ?weighting ?method ?is ?used ?to ?analyze ?the ?spatial distribution?characteristics?of?drought?frequency?at?different?time?scales. ??????Results?showed?that:?the?precipitation?anomaly?percentage?in?Shandong?Province?shows?a?downward?trend?of fluctuation ?year ?by ?year, ?but ?the ?decreasing ?trend ?was ?not ?obvious; ?the ?occurrence ?of ?drought ?has ?obvious seasonality, ?showing ?the ?phenomenon ?of ?seasonal ?continuous ?drought. ?On ?the ?time ?scale, ?the ?ambiguity ?and randomness?of?the?drought?distribution?on?the?annual?scale?are?smaller?than?the?seasonal?scale,?the?determinism?of the?drought?is?easier?to?measure?than?the?seasonal?scale,?and?the?stability?of?the?unevenness?of?distribution?is?low;?the comparison?of?the?numerical?characteristics?of?the?inter-seasonal?cloud?shows?that?the?distribution?of?winter?and autumn ?droughts ?has ?been ?relatively ?vague ?and ?random ?over ?the ?years, ?and ?the ?certainty ?of ?winter ?drought distribution?is?the?most?difficult?to?measure.?In?terms?of?stability,?autumn?is?the?most?stable,?followed?by?spring,?and the?most?unstable?is?summer. ??????On ?the ?spatial ?scale, ?the ?frequency ?of ?drought, ?severe ?drought ?and ?extreme ?drought ?in ?the ?northwestern Shandong?area?is?the?highest;?the?frequency?of?mild?drought?in?the?Jiaodong?Peninsula?area?is?the?highest,?followed by?the?southern?Shandong?area;?the?frequency?of?moderate?drought?is?the?highest?in?middle?Shandong?Province, followed?by?south?Shandong?Province.?The?stability?of?drought?distribution?was?judged?by?the?value?of?super- entropy,?which?showed?that?the?northwest?of?Shandong?was?the?most?stable,?the?middle?of?Shandong?was?the?second, and?the?Jiaodong?Peninsula?was?the?most?unstable.?Based?on?the?analysis?of?the?uniformity?of?drought?distribution,?it is ?concluded ?that ?the ?drought ?distribution ?in ?southwest ?Shandong ?is ?the ?most ?uneven, ?and ?that ?the ?drought distribution?in?northwest?Shandong?is?the?most?balanced.?The?spatial?distribution?of?drought?frequency?in?Shandong Province?showed?that?spring?drought?and?winter?drought?decreased?from?northwest?to?southeast,?and?autumn?drought was?more?serious.The?cloud?model?has?a?good?application?prospect?for?drought?distribution?in?subhumid?area.
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