Index decomposition of provincial total water consumption control based on improved bankruptcy theory
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Abstract:
It?is?of?great?significance?to?breakthrough?the?"last?mile"?system?construction?in?the?most?stringent?water resources ?management ?by ?disaggregating ?the ?provincial ?total ?water ?use ?control ?index ?into ?prefecture-level ?city administrative ?units. ?Taking ?Jilin ?Province ?as ?an ?example, ?the ?initial ?allocation ?system ?of ?the ?total ?water consumption?control?index?at?the?“province-city”?level?was?established?by?combining?the?level?of?social?and economic?development?and?water?resources?conditions?in?various?regions.?Then,?the?hierarchical?identification?of water?demand?in?each?prefecture-level?city?was?carried?out?based?on?Maslow’s?demand?theory.?On?this?basis,?the provincial?total?water?consumption?control?index?was?decomposed?into?prefecture-level?cities?using?the?improved bankruptcy ?theory. ?Four ?indexes ?of ?population-total ?water ?consumption ?Gini ?coefficient, ?GDP-total ?water consumption?Gini?coefficient,?per?capita?comprehensive?water?consumption?and?water?consumption?per?10,000?yuan GDP?were?selected?to?evaluate?the?social?and?economic?stability?of?the?provincial?and?municipal?levels. ??????The?results?showed?that?the?improved?bankruptcy?theory?method?had?high?applicability?in?the?decomposition?of provincial?total?water?consumption?control?indicators.?The?decomposition?results?of?total?water?consumption?control indicators?were?in?line?with?the?future?development?trend?of?water?consumption?in?various?prefecture-level?cities, which?solved?the?problem?of?unreasonable?water?distribution?of?small?users?in?the?traditional?bankruptcy?theory method.?The?decomposition?indicators?could?meet?the?rigid?water?demand?of?regional?development?and?effectively improve?the?fairness?and?stability?of?regional?water?consumption.?Specifically?reflected?in：?①?compared?with?the actual?decomposition?scheme?in?2020,?the?stability?of?the?matching?degree?between?population?and?total?water consumption?and?GDP?and?total?water?consumption?in?Jilin?Province?increased?by?11.03%?and?9.97%,?respectively. Among?the?nine?prefecture-level?cities,?the?water?consumption?level?of?eight?prefecture-level?cities?had?improved, and?only?Siping?City?had?reduced?the?water?consumption?level?by?31.8%?due?to?the?mismatch?between?the?future development ?trend ?and ?the ?population ?change ?trend. ?The ?water ?use ?efficiency ?of ?seven ?prefecture-level ?cities increased?by?more?than?10%,?and?the?water?consumption?efficiency?of?two?prefecture-level?cities?decreased?due?to the?backwardness?of?their?industrial?structure.?②?Compared?with?the?traditional?bankruptcy?theory?decomposition scheme,?the?stability?of?the?matching?degree?between?population?and?total?water?consumption?and?the?stability?of?the matching?degree?between?GDP?and?total?water?consumption?in?Jilin?Province?increased?by?33.77%?and?18.32%, respectively.?Among?the?nine?prefecture-level?cities,?the?improved?bankruptcy?theory?method?considered?multiple indicators?other?than?the?water?demand?index?in?the?traditional?bankruptcy?theory,?and?the?final?water?consumption level?and?water?consumption?efficiency?changes?of?each?prefecture-level?city?were?more?reasonable. ??????The?problem?of?unreasonable?water?distribution?of?small?and?medium-sized?users?in?the?traditional?bankruptcy theory?was?solved?by?the?improved?bankruptcy?theory?proposed,?which?provided?a?reference?method?for?water administrative?departments?at?all?levels?to?carry?out?refined?water?management.?At?the?same?time,?it?had?certain technical?value?in?improving?the?strictest?water?resources?management?system.
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