Analysis and prediction of water conservation capacity in Qinhe River basin based on SWAT
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Abstract:
In the context of global climate change, excessive deforestation, urban construction and irrational use of water resources have been carried out by human beings for a long time, and the phenomena of water resource shortage, water environment pollution, water ecology deterioration and river closure have become increasingly prominent. The original ecosystems in many river basins were destroyed and the ecosystem service functions were reduced. Water conservation capacity has important service functions such as regulating runoff, purifying water quality, and regulating and storing flood water. As a first-level tributary of the Yellow River, the Qinhe River is an important part of the ecosystem along the river. However, due to the influence of climate change and human activities in recent years, the land use change of the Qinhe River basin is significant, and the inter-annual variation characteristics of water conservation function are gradually complicated. Therefore, exploring the water conservation capacity of Qinhe River basin in the changing environment can provide scientific reference value for ecological protection and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River basin.SWAT model was constructed, and the land use data set of the Qinhe River basin in 2030 was predicted based on the CA-Markov model to analyze and predict the temporal and spatial changes of water conservation capacity in the Qinhe River basin. Combined with CMIP6 meteorological data, the hydrological factors of the river basin simulated by the SWAT model were obtained according to the principle of water balance. The temporal and spatial changes in water conservation in the past and future years were calculated. In addition, by calculating the ratio of water conservation and precipitation, the index of water conservation rate was introduced to further quantify the water conservation capacity of the basin for storing precipitation and supplying water.The results show that the average annual water conservation is 49 mm and the average annual water conservation rate is 8% in the Qinhe River basin. From 2010 to 2016, water conservation showed a trend of fluctuation and increase, and the water conservation is consistent with the inter-annual variation trend of precipitation. The spatial distribution characteristics of water conservation and water conservation rate in 2010, 2015, and 2025 are similar, showing a trend of increasing from upstream to downstream and decreasing from west to east. However, the spatial distribution characteristics of water conservation and water conservation rate in 2030 are different from other years, and the overall trend is decreasing from the upstream to the downstream, and the water conservation and water conservation rate are negative in the downstream multi-section basins.The analysis showed that the spatial distribution of water conservation rate and water conservation in the basin has a good consistency, and there are negative values in the sub-basins, indicating that the water conservation capacity of the basin is low, the ecological environment is damaged to a high degree, and the ecological water consumption in the river is insufficient, which is in line with the actual situation that the relevant river reaches were cut off.
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